Irish Stallion Farms EBF Sovereign Path Handicap (Premier Handicap)

Leopardstown

17:10

Date 2024-09-14

Distance 7f

Class

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize €88,500

Runners (18)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (15)	Cerulean Bay Bay J:Colin Keane T:David O'Meara	J:Colin Keane T:David O'Meara	136	—	452111	100	108	88	15d	—	—	+24	41	1.00/1	4/1 20%
2lb worse off with Cuban Tiger here on their Thirsk run but rates as the one to beat
9 (10)	Cuban Tiger Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	131	—	750532	95	108	92	15d	—	—	+10	21.4	1.75/1	7/1 13%
2lb swing in the weights with Cerulean Bay here but he will do well to reverse the form
16 (5)	Kortez Bay Chestnut J:Gary Carroll T:Ms Sheila Lavery	J:Gary Carroll T:Ms Sheila Lavery	126	—	323105	90	108	94	29d	—	—	+10	19.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Still 5lb above sole handicap start when 2nd over 6f at Naas in May; others better treated
17 (1)	Old Faithful Bay J:Ryan Moore T:A P O'Brien	J:Ryan Moore T:A P O'Brien	126	p	110209	90	106	76	14d	—	—	+9	16.7	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Unable to quicken in Irish Cambridgeshire; Moore takes over but probably wants further
14 (21)	Garfield Shadow Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	128	—	-14013	92	110	80	14d	—	—	+17	24.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Headed on the line at Chester; only up 1lb but a stiff 7f might stretch his stamina
5 (7)	Rahmi Chestnut J:Danny Sheehy T:J P Murtagh	J:Danny Sheehy T:J P Murtagh	135	tb	020732	95	107	93	37d	—	—	+14	21.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Traded at 1-100 in-running when throwing the race away at Chepstow when last seen
7 (20)	Dance Night Andday Bay J:Ronan Whelan T:Ross O'Sullivan	J:Ronan Whelan T:Ross O'Sullivan	133	—	115428	93	105	96	20d	—	—	+12	18	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Short of room whe beaten 5l in Naas G3 last time and isn't discounted back in a handicap
6 (12)	Booyea Chestnut J:Robert Whearty(3) T:Thomas Gibney	J:Robert Whearty(3) T:Thomas Gibney	133	—	9-1180	93	109	99	14d	—	—	+7	12.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
6th in Galway Mile but disappointing in Irish Cambridgeshire; bit to prove off this mark
11 (16)	Havana Blue Grey J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	130	—	676512	90	107	97	14d	—	—	+17	23.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Nabbed in the dying strides at Sandown; won't get his own way out in front here
2 (6)	Atlantic Coast Bay J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	139	t	1-7628	103	102	69	43d	—	—	+16	22	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Folded tamely back up in grade at Goodwood last month; handicap debut from a tough mark
10 (9)	Blues Emperor Chestnut J:Wesley Joyce(5) T:J P Murtagh	J:Wesley Joyce(5) T:J P Murtagh	130	tp	056850	90	109	88	14d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+6	11.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Penultimate Galway Mile fifth off 4lb higher brings him into this at the weights
15 (18)	Gleneagle Bay Bay J:Chris Hayes T:Jack W Davison	J:Chris Hayes T:Jack W Davison	128	—	152	88	108	94	92d	—	—	+15	21.1	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Few miles on the clock and has an 8lb pull in the weights with Booyea on latest run
13 (14)	Raknah Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Mrs John Harrington	J:Tom Marquand T:Mrs John Harrington	129	p	765157	93	104	91	13d	—	—	+13	16.8	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Good win from the front at Galway and ran a huge race in valuable York handicap; player
4 (13)	I Am Superman Bay J:James Ryan(3) T:M D O'Callaghan	J:James Ryan(3) T:M D O'Callaghan	136	tp	-15562	96	110	82	31d	—	—	+16	19.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Beaten a short-head at Gowran; effectively 5lb lower here factoring in the rider's claim
8 (17)	Hurricane Ivor Bay J:Shane Foley T:Mrs John Harrington	J:Shane Foley T:Mrs John Harrington	132	—	6-0102	92	108	98	41d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+8	11.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Ran a cracker in first-time cheekpieces when second in the Ahonoora at the Galway festival
12 (4)	Physique Bay J:Seamie Heffernan T:Micky Fenton	J:Seamie Heffernan T:Micky Fenton	129	h	392210	89	106	88	14d	—	—	+18	21.8	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Didn't handle the track at Chester since and will get plenty of competition for the lead
18 (11)	Daamberdiplomat Chestnut J:Rory Mulligan(7) T:J P Murtagh	J:Rory Mulligan(7) T:J P Murtagh	125	h	-34506	85	106	78	31d	—	—	+7	10.1	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Slowly away last two starts and will have plenty of traffic to weave through here
NR (3)	Dunum Bay J:W J Lee T:Miss Natalia Lupini	J:W J Lee T:Miss Natalia Lupini	140	—	0-6636	100	107	90	29d	—	—	—	12.5	—	—
Disappointed in Listed company at Cork but enters the reckoning here off okay mark

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Cerulean Bay	4/1	4/1	4/1
Cuban Tiger	13/2	7/1	7/1
Kortez Bay	9/1	15/2	8/1
Old Faithful	17/2	17/2	9/1
Garfield Shadow	10/1	9/1	9/1
Rahmi	11/1	9/1	11/1
Dance Night Andday	14/1	12/1	12/1
Booyea	16/1	14/1	14/1
Havana Blue	14/1	14/1	14/1
Atlantic Coast	12/1	12/1	12/1
Blues Emperor	18/1	14/1	16/1
Gleneagle Bay	16/1	16/1	16/1
Raknah	20/1	20/1	20/1
I Am Superman	25/1	22/1	25/1
Hurricane Ivor	20/1	22/1	22/1
Physique	25/1	25/1	25/1
Daamberdiplomat	40/1	33/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Cerulean Bay

OR: 12.5 Form: 23.5 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

Garfield Shadow

24.7

OR: 10.5 Form: 12 Odds: 2.2

10/1

3rd

Havana Blue

23.7

OR: 10 Form: 12 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Atlantic Coast

OR: 13.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Physique

21.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 11 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Rahmi

21.5

OR: 11.3 Form: 8.1 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Cuban Tiger

21.4

OR: 11.3 Form: 7.1 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Gleneagle Bay

21.1

OR: 9.5 Form: 10 Odds: 1.6

16/1

I Am Superman

19.6

OR: 11.5 Form: 7 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Kortez Bay

19.4

OR: 10 Form: 6.9 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Dance Night Andday

OR: 10.8 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Raknah

16.8

OR: 10.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.1

20/1

Old Faithful

16.7

OR: 10 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.2

9/1

Dunum

12.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Booyea

12.4

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Blues Emperor

11.6

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Hurricane Ivor

11.6

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Daamberdiplomat

10.1

OR: 8.8 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Atlantic Coast	103	102	69
Cerulean Bay	100	108	88
Dunum	100	107	90
I Am Superman	96	110	82
Cuban Tiger	95	108	92
Rahmi	95	107	93
Dance Night Andday	93	105	96
Booyea	93	109	99
Raknah	93	104	91
Garfield Shadow	92	110	80
Hurricane Ivor	92	108	98
Kortez Bay	90	108	94
Old Faithful	90	106	76
Havana Blue	90	107	97
Blues Emperor	90	109	88
Physique	89	106	88
Gleneagle Bay	88	108	94
Daamberdiplomat	85	106	78

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Raknah	13d ago	Quick return
Old Faithful	14d ago	Fit
Garfield Shadow	14d ago	Fit
Booyea	14d ago	Fit
Havana Blue	14d ago	Fit
Blues Emperor	14d ago	Fit
Physique	14d ago	Fit
Cerulean Bay	15d ago	Fit
Cuban Tiger	15d ago	Fit
Dance Night Andday	20d ago	Fit
Kortez Bay	29d ago	Fit
Dunum	29d ago	Fit
I Am Superman	31d ago	Fit
Daamberdiplomat	31d ago	Fit
Rahmi	37d ago	Fit
Hurricane Ivor	41d ago	Fit
Atlantic Coast	43d ago	Fit
Gleneagle Bay	92d ago	Long break