Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

16:20

Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap

Date 2023-12-22

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,307

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (3)	Tea Sea Bay J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	133	b	0-7212	65	81	61	7d	—	—	-10	9.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Easy C&D winner 15 days ago; beaten over 7f last week but still ran well; more to come
3 (4)	Pavlodar Chestnut J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	133	t	556218	64	75	53	109d	—	—	-1	18.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Non-runner
7 (11)	Urban Road Chestnut J:P J McDonald T:Alan Brown	J:P J McDonald T:Alan Brown	132	v	137123	63	78	64	52d	—	—	+8	18	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Four wins since April & still improving judged on last two efforts; one for the shortlist
11 (2)	Perfect Swiss Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	131	—	025469	62	83	26	38d	—	—	-2	6.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Won this race last year off 3lb higher; return to Class 6 company in his favour; contender
5 (12)	Soames Forsyte Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	133	p	378738	64	76	50	15d	—	—	-2	8.5	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Exposed maiden but on a dangerous mark and this his first run in a Class 6 handicap
2 (9)	Yorkstone Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	133	—	526113	65	78	-	—	—	—	+13	22.3	2.50/1	10/1 9%
In good form on FLat in recent months; jumped poorly on hurdle debut; this more suitable
8 (7)	Landlordtothestars Bay J:Dougie Costello T:James Evans	J:Dougie Costello T:James Evans	131	—	272771	63	79	61	17d	—	—	+8	17.3	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Course winner; doubled his tally with 8.5f win at Wolverhampton this month; needs more
12 (10)	King Of York Bay J:James Sullivan T:Scott Dixon	J:James Sullivan T:Scott Dixon	130	p	349406	61	80	77	13d	—	—	-3	4.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Exposed 17-race maiden; not beaten far last time; stable also run Sycamore
4 (5)	Haworth Star Bay J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	133	p	570320	65	80	73	15d	—	—	+4	10.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Has been threatening on Tapeta but over 7f; tack issues latest; stamina for 1m not assured
1 (6)	Sycamore Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	134	—	02-094	65	75	54	15d	—	—	0	5.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
C&D winner; mixed record in the last 13 months but drops in class and can't be ruled out
9 (1)	Masterpainter Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Michael Dods	J:Phil Dennis T:Michael Dods	131	b	-48636	63	76	51	46d	—	—	+2	6.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Placed over C&D in September and not seen to best effect latest; each-way claims
10 (8)	Comedian Leader Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Gay Kelleway	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Gay Kelleway	131	tp	738996	63	78	68	42d	—	—	0	5.5	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Four wins over 7f in January; down to a good mark; not sure she needs 1m

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Tea Sea	3/1	7/2	7/2
Pavlodar	4/1	10/3	4/1
Urban Road	8/1	15/2	15/2
Perfect Swiss	8/1	17/2	8/1
Soames Forsyte	9/1	15/2	15/2
Yorkstone	10/1	17/2	17/2
Landlordtothestars	12/1	17/2	10/1
King Of York	12/1	11/1	11/1
Haworth Star	14/1	12/1	12/1
Sycamore	16/1	16/1	16/1
Masterpainter	20/1	20/1	20/1
Comedian Leader	20/1	16/1	16/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Yorkstone

22.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 16 Odds: 2.5

10/1

2nd

Pavlodar

18.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 9.5 Odds: 5.7

4/1

3rd

Urban Road

OR: 3.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Landlordtothestars

17.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.5

12/1

Haworth Star

10.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Tea Sea

9.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Soames Forsyte

8.5

OR: 3.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.9

9/1

Masterpainter

6.6

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Perfect Swiss

6.5

OR: 3 Form: 1 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Comedian Leader

5.5

OR: 3.3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.6

20/1

Sycamore

5.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

King Of York

4.9

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tea Sea	65	81	61
Yorkstone	65	78	—
Haworth Star	65	80	73
Sycamore	65	75	54
Pavlodar	64	75	53
Soames Forsyte	64	76	50
Urban Road	63	78	64
Landlordtothestars	63	79	61
Masterpainter	63	76	51
Comedian Leader	63	78	68
Perfect Swiss	62	83	26
King Of York	61	80	77

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tea Sea	7d ago	Quick return
King Of York	13d ago	Quick return
Soames Forsyte	15d ago	Fit
Haworth Star	15d ago	Fit
Sycamore	15d ago	Fit
Landlordtothestars	17d ago	Fit
Perfect Swiss	38d ago	Fit
Comedian Leader	42d ago	Fit
Masterpainter	46d ago	Fresh
Urban Road	52d ago	Fresh
Pavlodar	109d ago	Long break
Yorkstone	—	—

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Tea Sea	Hold Up
Masterpainter	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 5 draws with historical results at this course and distance.