Northumbria Leisure Celebrating 52 Years Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Newcastle (AW)

16:50

Date 2025-10-14

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,888

Winning Time 2m 9.76s (slow by 3.26s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Antrim (GB) James Doyle · John & Thady Gosden	7/4	Won
2nd	Superfortress (IRE) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	100/1	5
3rd	Provision (GB) David Nolan · Paul Midgley	50/1	0.3
4th	Tyraxes (IRE) P J McDonald · Andrew Balding	3/1	4.25
5th	Alobayyah (GB) Tom Marquand · William Haggas	5/6F	.75
6th	I Am Simba (GB) Kaiya Fraser · Rebecca Menzies	250/1	11
7th	Timely Approach (GB) Tom Eaves · Tracy Waggott	200/1	1
8th	Hangover Bay (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Craig Lidster	66/1	1.5

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (8)	Alobayyah Bay J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	132	—	1-8	93	96	-	45d	—	—	-20	37.8	0.14/1	4/7 64%
Debut winner at Yarmouth; eighth in Sandown Group 3 ten months later; the one to beat
5 (3)	Antrim Bay J:James Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	J:James Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	130	p	573	77	87	-	130d	—	—	-10	18.6	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Good third at Doncaster in June; gelded since and could do better still after his break
8 (4)	Tyraxes Bay J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	130	t	3	-	80	44	21d	—	—	-9	8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Shaped well when a debut third at Lingfield; has more to offer so must enter calculations
7 (7)	Provision Brown J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	130	—	53	-	61	37	19d	—	—	+1	3.9	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Third in maiden over C&D 19 days ago; he can do better still but needs to in this
6 (1)	Hangover Bay Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Craig Lidster	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Craig Lidster	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	25.00/1	100/1 1%
3,000guineas yearling by Sergei Prokofiev; on this debut, others seem more likely
2 (5)	Superfortress Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	134	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Sea The Stars gelding; the market can guide on his belated debut
1 (6)	I Am Simba Bay J:Kaiya Fraser T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Kaiya Fraser T:Rebecca Menzies	134	—	88	-	56	30	17d	—	—	-1	0.4	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Beat just one in 1m4f Southwell maiden 17 days ago; it's easy to look elsewhere
3 (2)	Timely Approach Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Tracy Waggott	J:Tom Eaves T:Tracy Waggott	134	—	66	-	42	-	73d	—	—	-1	0.4	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Has cut little ice in a pair of bumpers and 1m novices at Pontefract/Thirsk this summer

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Alobayyah	8/15	8/15	4/7
Antrim	2/1	7/4	15/8
Tyraxes	9/2	4/1	4/1
Provision	66/1	50/1	50/1
Hangover Bay	100/1	50/1	66/1
Superfortress	200/1	100/1	150/1
I Am Simba	250/1	100/1	200/1
Timely Approach	200/1	100/1	200/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Alobayyah

37.8

OR: 10.8 Form: 7 Odds: 20

4/7

2nd

Antrim

18.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 3 Odds: 8.9

2/1

3rd

Tyraxes

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 5

9/2

Provision

3.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.9

66/1

Hangover Bay

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

100/1

Superfortress

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

200/1

I Am Simba

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

250/1

Timely Approach

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Alobayyah	93	96	—
Antrim	77	87	—
Tyraxes	—	80	44
Provision	—	61	37
Hangover Bay	—	—	—
Superfortress	—	—	—
I Am Simba	—	56	30
Timely Approach	—	42	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
I Am Simba	17d ago	Fit
Provision	19d ago	Fit
Tyraxes	21d ago	Fit
Alobayyah	45d ago	Fit
Timely Approach	73d ago	Fresh
Antrim	130d ago	Long break
Hangover Bay	—	—
Superfortress	—	—