Alfie's Bar Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:30

Alfie's Bar Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-10-18

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £2,983

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Kilteel Bay J:P J McDonald T:Ed Dunlop	J:P J McDonald T:Ed Dunlop	136	—	80818	56	63	39	10d	—	—	-6	14.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
7f win here on nursery debut last month; below that level at Brighton latest; down in trip
5 (4)	Uncle Sam Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	134	—	739874	54	62	-	32d	—	—	-11	6.6	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Not beaten far at Thirsk last month; one to consider now switched to AW
6 (5)	Monticristo Boy Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	133	t	580232	53	60	48	24d	—	—	0	14.4	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Runner-up in two of his three nursery starts; tongue tie now added; should run well
4 (2)	Layaali Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:John Butler	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:John Butler	134	—	865034	54	61	46	4d	—	—	-10	8.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Good efforts over C&D and at Kempton this month; still has time to do better
8 (7)	A Fine Claret Bay J:Shane Gray T:K R Burke	J:Shane Gray T:K R Burke	130	—	948	50	51	-	95d	—	—	-9	3.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Poor form in three turf runs in midsummer; gelded since; likely improver now handicapping
1 (10)	Elladora Black Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Charlie Johnston	J:Billy Loughnane T:Charlie Johnston	137	—	796553	57	58	35	31d	—	—	-2	7.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Fair 3rd behind Kilteel here (7f) last month; had an easy lead there though & vulnerable
7 (9)	Stat Goddess Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Craig Lidster	J:Ryan Sexton T:Craig Lidster	131	—	465435	51	61	46	17d	—	—	-2	4	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Exposed 12-race maiden; ran okay over C&D latest without totally convincing at the trip
3 (1)	Itsallaboutus Bay J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Richard Fahey	136	p	037809	56	37	7	19d	—	—	0	3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Down in weights and possible this return to sprinting will help; risky but not impossible
10 (8)	Aria's Dream Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	125	—	0908	45	31	20	24d	—	—	-2	0.6	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Fared no better for the switch to nurseries here last month; too much to prove
9 (3)	Sun Petal Bay J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Simon West	J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Simon West	125	p	698050	45	59	16	15d	—	—	-1	0.5	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Dropped away over 1m2f on recent stable debut; cheekpieces added now down in trip

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Kilteel	10/3	10/3	10/3
Uncle Sam	4/1	4/1	4/1
Monticristo Boy	5/1	5/1	5/1
Layaali	4/1	4/1	9/2
A Fine Claret	11/2	11/2	11/2
Elladora Black	17/2	15/2	8/1
Stat Goddess	18/1	16/1	18/1
Itsallaboutus	50/1	33/1	40/1
Aria's Dream	50/1	50/1	66/1
Sun Petal	80/1	50/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Kilteel

14.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 7 Odds: 6.2

10/3

2nd

Monticristo Boy

14.4

OR: 0.8 Form: 9.6 Odds: 4

5/1

3rd

Layaali

8.3

OR: 1 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Elladora Black

7.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 3 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Uncle Sam

6.6

OR: 1 Form: 0.6 Odds: 5

4/1

Stat Goddess

OR: 0.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.6

18/1

A Fine Claret

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Itsallaboutus

OR: 1.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.9

50/1

Aria's Dream

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Sun Petal

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Elladora Black	57	58	35
Kilteel	56	63	39
Itsallaboutus	56	37	7
Uncle Sam	54	62	—
Layaali	54	61	46
Monticristo Boy	53	60	48
Stat Goddess	51	61	46
A Fine Claret	50	51	—
Aria's Dream	45	31	20
Sun Petal	45	59	16

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Layaali	4d ago	Quick return
Kilteel	10d ago	Quick return
Sun Petal	15d ago	Fit
Stat Goddess	17d ago	Fit
Itsallaboutus	19d ago	Fit
Monticristo Boy	24d ago	Fit
Aria's Dream	24d ago	Fit
Elladora Black	31d ago	Fit
Uncle Sam	32d ago	Fit
A Fine Claret	95d ago	Long break