Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:30

Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap

Date 2024-10-17

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (12)	Snash Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	129	p	004454	61	79	71	14d	—	—	-11	8.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Not far away on last four outings (three of those at 7f) so has a place chance
7 (3)	Highland Olly Bay J:David Nolan T:Grant Tuer	J:David Nolan T:Grant Tuer	133	—	638713	67	79	-	37d	—	—	+5	18.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Won at Musselburgh in August; only one AW run (June) and may well need a career best
4 (6)	Bella Taslina Chestnut J:Jim Crowley T:Clive Cox	J:Jim Crowley T:Clive Cox	135	p	431846	69	78	47	49d	—	—	-4	13.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Won handicap debut at Doncaster (7f) in July; hasn't lived up to that in three runs since
6 (7)	Embarked Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	134	b	623391	66	79	70	18d	—	—	+10	20.3	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Hung on by a nose when making all from stall 1 over C&D 18 days ago; back up 3lb
3 (1)	Bicep Bay J:Harrison Shaw T:Grant Tuer	J:Harrison Shaw T:Grant Tuer	136	—	625825	68	87	62	13d	—	—	+1	12.3	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Second on last two visits here; each-way claims with return to 7f likely to suit
12 (11)	King Of York Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	127	p	777087	59	82	61	18d	—	—	-3	4.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
C&D winner in February and March during consistent spell; not in the same form since April
1 (2)	Airshow Chestnut J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Rod Millman	J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Rod Millman	138	hp	643128	70	80	67	18d	—	—	+10	16.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
9yo; highly competitive sequence prior to a disappointing show over C&D on latest outing
11 (10)	Forever A Diamond Brown J:Tom Marquand T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Tom Marquand T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	129	b	545336	63	79	68	24d	—	—	+3	8.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Close third at Kempton (in first-time blinkers, kept since) two runs back; none too solid
9 (9)	Makalu Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	130	—	342287	62	80	-	17d	—	—	+3	8.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Four wins this season; form has dipped on last two outings but he is not dismissed
8 (5)	Only In Jakarta Brown J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	132	p	600370	66	80	13	37d	—	—	+2	6.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Won a novice at Newcastle (7f, AW) in January but sparked in only one of six starts since
5 (8)	Heretic Chestnut J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	134	t	206/1-	66	-	-	636d	—	—	+12	14.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Won handicap debut at Newcastle (1m) in January 2023; 10,000gns buy; wind op that November
2 (4)	Rob's Umberella Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	136	—	4450	70	76	15	15d	—	—	+3	5.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Absent 221 days (gelded) before tailing off so badly on handicap/turf debut (7f, soft)

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Snash	7/2	7/2	7/2
Highland Olly	11/2	11/2	11/2
Bella Taslina	4/1	7/2	9/2
Embarked	8/1	8/1	8/1
Bicep	7/1	7/1	7/1
King Of York	11/1	11/1	11/1
Airshow	14/1	14/1	14/1
Forever A Diamond	14/1	14/1	16/1
Makalu	14/1	14/1	16/1
Only In Jakarta	20/1	20/1	18/1
Heretic	33/1	33/1	33/1
Rob's Umberella	50/1	40/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Embarked

20.3

OR: 4 Form: 13.4 Odds: 2.9

8/1

2nd

Highland Olly

18.9

OR: 4.3 Form: 10.6 Odds: 4

11/2

3rd

Airshow

16.1

OR: 5 Form: 9.4 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Heretic

14.7

OR: 4 Form: 10 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Bella Taslina

13.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 5

9/2

Bicep

12.3

OR: 4.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Makalu

8.6

OR: 3 Form: 4 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Snash

8.5

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Forever A Diamond

8.5

OR: 3.3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Only In Jakarta

6.7

OR: 4 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Rob's Umberella

5.6

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

King Of York

4.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Airshow	70	80	67
Rob's Umberella	70	76	15
Bella Taslina	69	78	47
Bicep	68	87	62
Highland Olly	67	79	—
Embarked	66	79	70
Only In Jakarta	66	80	13
Heretic	66	—	—
Forever A Diamond	63	79	68
Makalu	62	80	—
Snash	61	79	71
King Of York	59	82	61

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bicep	13d ago	Quick return
Snash	14d ago	Fit
Rob's Umberella	15d ago	Fit
Makalu	17d ago	Fit
Embarked	18d ago	Fit
King Of York	18d ago	Fit
Airshow	18d ago	Fit
Forever A Diamond	24d ago	Fit
Highland Olly	37d ago	Fit
Only In Jakarta	37d ago	Fit
Bella Taslina	49d ago	Fresh
Heretic	636d ago	Long break