EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race) (Div II)

Southwell (AW)

19:45

Date 2024-10-05

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,402

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (1)	Bouvier Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	J:Billy Loughnane T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	126	—	327	84	94	-	49d	—	—	-14	26.8	0.31/1	5/4 44%
Solid form over 7f on first two starts; stiff task latest; the one to beat here; AW debut
1 (6)	Hala Blue Bay J:Paddy Bradley T:Ismail Mohammed	J:Paddy Bradley T:Ismail Mohammed	128	—	3	-	78	48	31d	—	—	-15	11	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Finished her race off well at Lingfield on last month's debut (6f, AW); can do better
2 (8)	Happy To Fly Chestnut J:P J McDonald T:Charlie Johnston	J:P J McDonald T:Charlie Johnston	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-11	4.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
52,000euros half-sis to German 1000 Guineas winner; dam a Group 3 winner; newcomer of note
4 (3)	Perfect Dark Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	128	—	53	-	84	49	10d	—	—	-4	5.7	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Modest debut but lots of positives to take from a recent third at Kempton; solid claims
11 (5)	Lady Modena Chestnut J:Connor Planas(3) T:Tom Clover	J:Connor Planas(3) T:Tom Clover	124	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.1	5.00/1	20/1 5%
15,000gns yearling; some appeal on paper and in-form yard having a solid year with 2yos
9 (11)	Tara Road Bay J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Archie Watson	J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Archie Watson	126	—	47	-	83	59	24d	—	—	-3	1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Some promise over 7f and dropping in trip could help; improvement required to win though
6 (7)	Castellina Chestnut J:Ross Coakley T:James Fanshawe	J:Ross Coakley T:James Fanshawe	126	—	8	-	53	30	30d	—	—	-2	0.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Got start all wrong on debut but did hint at ability; pedigree offers hope of much better
3 (10)	No Nay Nevermind Chestnut J:Billy Garritty T:Iain Jardine	J:Billy Garritty T:Iain Jardine	128	—	84	-	76	-	24d	—	—	-2	0.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Second run was better than her debut but another step forward is required to win
8 (4)	Tabby Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Denis Quinn	J:Callum Shepherd T:Denis Quinn	126	—	05	-	72	62	35d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Second run was better than her debut but further progress is needed to take this
7 (9)	Dusky Rain Grey J:Kieran O'Neill T:Paul Attwater	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Paul Attwater	126	—	08	-	37	28	25d	—	—	-1	0.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Poor form in two 6f runs so far (for Tom Dascombe on debut); minor handicaps beckon
10 (2)	Ziva's Star Chestnut J:Dale Swift T:Philip Kirby	J:Dale Swift T:Philip Kirby	126	—	89	-	45	-	25d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Poor form in two runs this year; one for handicaps over further after this

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Bouvier	5/4	11/10	5/4
Hala Blue	9/4	9/4	9/4
Happy To Fly	6/1	6/1	6/1
Perfect Dark	8/1	8/1	8/1
Lady Modena	20/1	20/1	20/1
Tara Road	25/1	22/1	25/1
Castellina	40/1	33/1	33/1
No Nay Nevermind	40/1	33/1	33/1
Tabby	50/1	40/1	50/1
Dusky Rain	100/1	66/1	66/1
Ziva's Star	150/1	100/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Bouvier

26.8

OR: 8.5 Form: 5 Odds: 13.3

5/4

2nd

Hala Blue

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 8

9/4

3rd

Perfect Dark

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Happy To Fly

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

6/1

Lady Modena

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

20/1

Tara Road

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Castellina

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

No Nay Nevermind

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Tabby

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Dusky Rain

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Ziva's Star

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bouvier	84	94	—
Hala Blue	—	78	48
Happy To Fly	—	—	—
Perfect Dark	—	84	49
Lady Modena	—	—	—
Tara Road	—	83	59
Castellina	—	53	30
No Nay Nevermind	—	76	—
Tabby	—	72	62
Dusky Rain	—	37	28
Ziva's Star	—	45	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Perfect Dark	10d ago	Quick return
Tara Road	24d ago	Fit
No Nay Nevermind	24d ago	Fit
Dusky Rain	25d ago	Fit
Ziva's Star	25d ago	Fit
Castellina	30d ago	Fit
Hala Blue	31d ago	Fit
Tabby	35d ago	Fit
Bouvier	49d ago	Fresh
Happy To Fly	—	—
Lady Modena	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 6f16y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.