Prostate Cymru Forest Arms Brechfa "Confined" Handicap (Horses That Haven't Won A Flat Race In 2024)

Ffos Las

20:10

Date 2024-08-14

Distance 1m

Class Class 5

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (4)	The Smiling Wolf Chestnut J:Rose Dawes(5) T:Jack Channon	J:Rose Dawes(5) T:Jack Channon	137	—	52-490	72	77	36	82d	—	—	-9	11.7	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Sole 3yo; track/ground fine but is out of form and has stamina to prove
7 (8)	Change Of Fortune Chestnut J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Bernard Llewellyn	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Bernard Llewellyn	127	—	6-0427	55	78	63	27d	—	—	-13	7.4	0.75/1	3/1 25%
He's capable but throws in the odd bad one and remains a maiden
3 (2)	Equion Bay J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	135	—	53-504	63	80	62	25d	—	—	-11	9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Well handicapped and a danger to all if building on latest effort
1 (6)	Spirit Of The Bay Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:John & Rhys Flint	J:Daniel Muscutt T:John & Rhys Flint	144	b	80-767	72	71	55	30d	—	—	-4	9.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Hasn't fired for new yard but this is at least easier
4 (3)	Lunarscape Grey J:Edward Greatrex T:Mark Loughnane	J:Edward Greatrex T:Mark Loughnane	133	tp	524657	61	73	32	48d	—	—	-3	6.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Should appreciate this soft ground but is 0-15 in handicaps
6 (7)	King Of The Dance Bay J:David Egan T:Bernard Llewellyn	J:David Egan T:Bernard Llewellyn	131	—	50-667	59	69	42	61d	—	—	-3	4.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Just one run of note for this yard and not sure he wants it as soft as this
5 (1)	Bloodhound Grey J:David Probert T:Adrian Wintle	J:David Probert T:Adrian Wintle	132	p	-35530	60	72	60	68d	—	—	+2	6.3	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Tailed off on stable debut in June and has plenty to prove dropped back to 1m
NR (5)	Juan Cool Dude Bay J:TBC T:Simon Hodgson	J: T:Simon Hodgson	123	v	095-9	51	63	28	19d	—	—	—	0.3	—	—
New yard but same disappointing outcome on recent reappearance

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
The Smiling Wolf	3/1	11/4	3/1
Change Of Fortune	3/1	3/1	3/1
Equion	10/3	7/2	10/3
Spirit Of The Bay	11/2	5/1	5/1
Lunarscape	8/1	8/1	8/1
King Of The Dance	14/1	16/1	16/1
Bloodhound	20/1	20/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

The Smiling Wolf

11.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

3/1

2nd

Spirit Of The Bay

9.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

3rd

Equion

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Change Of Fortune

7.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

3/1

Lunarscape

6.4

OR: 2.8 Form: 1 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Bloodhound

6.3

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.7 Odds: 1.1

20/1

King Of The Dance

4.2

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

16/1

Juan Cool Dude

0.3

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
The Smiling Wolf	72	77	36
Spirit Of The Bay	72	71	55
Equion	63	80	62
Lunarscape	61	73	32
Bloodhound	60	72	60
King Of The Dance	59	69	42
Change Of Fortune	55	78	63
Juan Cool Dude	51	63	28

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Juan Cool Dude	19d ago	Fit
Equion	25d ago	Fit
Change Of Fortune	27d ago	Fit
Spirit Of The Bay	30d ago	Fit
Lunarscape	48d ago	Fresh
King Of The Dance	61d ago	Fresh
Bloodhound	68d ago	Fresh
The Smiling Wolf	82d ago	Fresh