University Hospitals Birmingham Charity Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

Stratford

17:00

Date 2024-07-14

Distance 2m6f7y

Class Class 5

Going Good

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £2,641

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9	Inspector Lynley Bay J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Neil Mulholland	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Neil Mulholland	152	p	45P-23	78	95	87	13d	—	—	-10	14.3	0.69/1	11/4 27%
0-11 over hurdles but pretty consistent in handicaps and bang there on last two outings
5	Arthalot Bay J:Liam Harrison T:Robbie Llewellyn	J:Liam Harrison T:Robbie Llewellyn	157	t	5/0U0-	83	93	30	—	—	—	-6	14.4	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Has been out of form but new trainer is among the winners, so worth a market check
2	Mountain Bay Bay J:Micheal Nolan T:Seamus Mullins	J:Micheal Nolan T:Seamus Mullins	164	p	6P4-32	90	94	64	42d	—	—	-2	15	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Ten-race maiden; much more competitive on last two starts (3m latest); cheekpieces now
7	Joker Du Chenet Brown J:Lilly Pinchin T:James Owen	J:Lilly Pinchin T:James Owen	155	tp	P7-444	81	95	81	13d	—	—	-1	11.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Fourth under 7lb claimer in good-ground handicaps over 3m/2m4f on last three starts
8	Fixed Wing Bay J:Kielan Woods T:David Killahena & Graeme McPherson	J:Kielan Woods T:David Killahena & Graeme McPherson	154	t	895-47	80	97	38	23d	—	—	0	10.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Encouragement on penultimate start and not discredited latest but others look more solid
1	Borderline Bay J:Lorcan Williams T:Jeremy Scott	J:Lorcan Williams T:Jeremy Scott	166	ht	458-6U	92	96	23	13d	—	—	+4	13	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Peak form gives him a chance but others are more persuasive
6	Swearer Brown J:Bryan Carver T:Joe Tickle	J:Bryan Carver T:Joe Tickle	156	tp	3PP-F5	82	87	-	45d	—	—	+5	9.1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Has had five races over hurdles, showing a glimmer on first and latest occasions
4	Deadlock Bay J:Mr Murray Dodd(7) T:Alastair Ralph	J:Mr Murray Dodd(7) T:Alastair Ralph	158	b	0664-7	84	96	69	—	—	—	+6	9.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Tailed off on last two outings (Flat latest) and now sports headgear first time
11	Nippin N Poppin Chestnut J:Lee Edwards T:Dave Roberts	J:Lee Edwards T:Dave Roberts	148	—	7/F-80	74	67	-	36d	—	—	+4	6.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Has shown little but makes handicap debut and is bred far more for this sort of trip
NR	Hugueneau Bay J:TBC T:Dan Skelton	J: T:Dan Skelton	163	t	42-P14	89	97	88	13d	—	—	—	9.8	—	—
Bled three starts back but firmly in the argument judged on both since
NR	Etoile Brillante Chestnut J:TBC T:Michael Wigham	J: T:Michael Wigham	150	—	59P-16	76	95	57	30d	—	—	—	6.5	—	—
Won at Warwick (2m5f, good) first start for this trainer; made a respiratory noise latest

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Inspector Lynley	5/2	11/4	5/2
Arthalot	3/1	11/4	10/3
Mountain Bay	9/2	4/1	9/2
Joker Du Chenet	7/1	15/2	7/1
Fixed Wing	8/1	13/2	15/2
Borderline	10/1	11/1	9/1
Swearer	28/1	28/1	28/1
Deadlock	25/1	18/1	25/1
Nippin N Poppin	33/1	25/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mountain Bay

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Arthalot

14.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

10/3

3rd

Inspector Lynley

14.3

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Borderline

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

11/1

Joker Du Chenet

11.1

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Fixed Wing

10.4

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Hugueneau

9.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Deadlock

9.6

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Swearer

9.1

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Nippin N Poppin

6.8

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Etoile Brillante

6.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Borderline	92	96	23
Mountain Bay	90	94	64
Hugueneau	89	97	88
Deadlock	84	96	69
Arthalot	83	93	30
Swearer	82	87	—
Joker Du Chenet	81	95	81
Fixed Wing	80	97	38
Inspector Lynley	78	95	87
Etoile Brillante	76	95	57
Nippin N Poppin	74	67	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Inspector Lynley	13d ago	Quick return
Joker Du Chenet	13d ago	Quick return
Borderline	13d ago	Quick return
Hugueneau	13d ago	Quick return
Fixed Wing	23d ago	Fit
Etoile Brillante	30d ago	Fit
Nippin N Poppin	36d ago	Fit
Mountain Bay	42d ago	Fit
Swearer	45d ago	Fit
Arthalot	—	—
Deadlock	—	—