Bedford Lodge Supports Racing Welfare EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Newmarket (July)

15:20

Date 2024-06-22

Distance 1m

Class Class 4

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo

Prize £5,154

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (12)	Sword Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	130	—	4-3	-	100	73	22d	—	—	-17	11.7	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Shown plenty of ability in both starts; major player getting 6lb from the previous winners
1 (7)	Dosman Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Roger Varian	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Roger Varian	136	—	4-1	-	97	44	17d	—	—	-2	15	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Did it well on his Kempton reappearance; 1m should suit and shortlisted despite penalty
4 (9)	Arabian Light Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Appleby	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Appleby	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-17	7.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Already gelded, but attractive pedigree and interesting to see how he fares in the market
3 (10)	Kilt Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	136	—	3-1	-	94	84	36d	—	—	+2	16.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Won a novice on the Rowley Mile last month; stable won this with Baaeed in 2021
2 (14)	First Conquest Bay J:Pat Cosgrave T:Charlie Appleby	J:Pat Cosgrave T:Charlie Appleby	136	—	14	91	95	82	36d	—	—	+12	19.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Won the Wood Ditton on debut, but disppointing at York next time; needs to bounce back
9 (11)	Skipper Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	130	—	5	-	94	84	36d	—	—	-6	2.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Less than 2l behind Kilt on his debut and 6lb better off; may not be far away
7 (8)	Ombudsman Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:John & Thady Gosden	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Market support on debut woud make him interesting, but Sword looks the stable's main hope
6 (6)	Midnight Ravens Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Tom Dascombe	J:Ross Coakley T:Tom Dascombe	130	—	52-	-	76	-	182d	—	—	+4	5.5	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Showed promise in two starts on the AW for another yard in December; one for handicaps
8 (13)	Prophet's Path Bay J:Harry Davies T:Owen Burrows	J:Harry Davies T:Owen Burrows	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Already gelded and probably only of interest if attracting support
12 (2)	Urban Lion Bay J:Edward Greatrex T:Jack Channon	J:Edward Greatrex T:Jack Channon	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Tough starting point; may not come into his own unril tackling handicaps over further
11 (3)	Time To Rule Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Richard Hannon	J:Kevin Stott T:Richard Hannon	130	—	9	-	39	-	65d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Around 26l behind First Conquest in the Wood Ditton; hard to recommend
5 (4)	Caballo De Mar Bay J:Finley Marsh T:George Scott	J:Finley Marsh T:George Scott	130	—	86	-	76	50	12d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Out of the frame in both starts, though did show some promise last time; one for handicaps
13 (5)	Velvet Vortex Bay J:Shane Kelly T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Shane Kelly T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Already gelded and will do well to win this on debut
14 (1)	Maryanne Bay J:John Fahy T:Jack Jones	J:John Fahy T:Jack Jones	125	—	70	-	71	-	36d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Nothing in two starts for Ian Williams and was beaten miles at Newbury last month

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Sword	15/8	15/8	15/8
Dosman	9/2	4/1	4/1
Arabian Light	7/2	10/3	7/2
Kilt	11/2	13/2	11/2
First Conquest	10/1	10/1	10/1
Skipper	17/2	17/2	17/2
Ombudsman	16/1	16/1	16/1
Midnight Ravens	50/1	80/1	50/1
Prophet's Path	100/1	66/1	100/1
Urban Lion	100/1	25/1	80/1
Time To Rule	150/1	80/1	125/1
Caballo De Mar	150/1	100/1	150/1
Velvet Vortex	150/1	66/1	150/1
Maryanne	200/1	100/1	250/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

First Conquest

19.4

OR: 10.3 Form: 7 Odds: 2.1

10/1

2nd

Kilt

16.1

OR: 0 Form: 12.1 Odds: 4

13/2

3rd

Dosman

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 5

9/2

Sword

11.7

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 8.7

15/8

Arabian Light

7.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

7/2

Midnight Ravens

5.5

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Skipper

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Ombudsman

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Urban Lion

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

100/1

Prophet's Path

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Velvet Vortex

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150/1

Time To Rule

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Caballo De Mar

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Maryanne

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
First Conquest	91	95	82
Sword	—	100	73
Dosman	—	97	44
Arabian Light	—	—	—
Kilt	—	94	84
Skipper	—	94	84
Ombudsman	—	—	—
Midnight Ravens	—	76	—
Prophet's Path	—	—	—
Urban Lion	—	—	—
Time To Rule	—	39	—
Caballo De Mar	—	76	50
Velvet Vortex	—	—	—
Maryanne	—	71	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Caballo De Mar	12d ago	Quick return
Dosman	17d ago	Fit
Sword	22d ago	Fit
Kilt	36d ago	Fit
First Conquest	36d ago	Fit
Skipper	36d ago	Fit
Maryanne	36d ago	Fit
Time To Rule	65d ago	Fresh
Midnight Ravens	182d ago	Long break
Arabian Light	—	—
Ombudsman	—	—
Prophet's Path	—	—
Urban Lion	—	—
Velvet Vortex	—	—