Sky Bet Acca Freeze Fillies' Handicap (A Jockey Club Grassroots Mile Distance Series Qualifier)

Newmarket

18:45

Date 2024-05-19

Distance 1m

Class Class 5

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £10,823

Runners (17)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (3)	Sunfall Chestnut J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	131	—	4-1	76	84	-	34d	—	—	+2	22.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Twice-raced filly who should have more to offer; won at Kempton latest; respected
5 (10)	Victoria Falls Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Hugo Palmer	J:Oisin Murphy T:Hugo Palmer	141	v	1128-7	74	81	65	9d	—	—	-1	8.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Remains on career-high mark but this return to Class 5 is a plus
7 (16)	Local Music Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Matt Crawley	J:Saffie Osborne T:Matt Crawley	133	—	82-241	66	78	27	36d	—	—	-2	6.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Raced mainly on AW; off the mark in Chelmsford contest most recently
4 (2)	Astral Spirit Bay J:Shane Kelly T:Pam Sly	J:Shane Kelly T:Pam Sly	141	—	8322-1	74	83	59	21d	—	—	+10	18.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Consistent maiden last year; made all at Wetherby on reappearance; may build on that win
10 (8)	Heartwarmer Bay J:William Buick T:George Boughey	J:William Buick T:George Boughey	130	—	1-3	75	82	46	27d	—	—	+9	18.9	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Strong promise in two starts over 6f; bred to stay this longer trip; enters calculations
14 (11)	Royal Velvet Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:William Knight	J:Callum Shepherd T:William Knight	127	—	61-1	72	80	-	23d	—	—	+10	17.6	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Out of an AW winner for her connections; has shown progress over 7f in that sphere
2 (15)	Bint Al Daar Brown J:Ethan Jones(7) T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Ethan Jones(7) T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	143	—	22518-	76	81	66	165d	—	—	+12	17.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Gained her sole turf success on the July course here last term; makes reappearance
15 (9)	Adelabella Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Michael Wigham	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Michael Wigham	126	—	45547	59	77	59	19d	—	—	-1	3.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Five-race maiden who needs to show improvement
12 (13)	Beveragino Brown J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	130	p	27-321	75	77	-	26d	—	—	+3	7.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Opened her account at Wolverhampton last month; this is a harder task
17 (5)	Astronomica Bay J:George Wood T:Dr Jon Scargill	J:George Wood T:Dr Jon Scargill	126	—	21324-	59	80	72	209d	—	—	+9	12.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Solid record in turf handicaps but ideally needs rain; both wins on soft ground
3 (1)	Speriamo Grey J:Adam Farragher T:Philip McBride	J:Adam Farragher T:Philip McBride	142	—	137-40	75	80	21	15d	—	—	+4	7.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Successful twice off this sort of mark at the Newmarket tracks; possibilities
16 (4)	Machiavellian Lady Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	126	—	319-	71	78	17	190d	—	—	+12	14.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Folded tamely when last seen; on a rebound mission; market may prove best guide
9 (7)	Ziggy's Phoenix Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	130	p	460-49	75	77	43	18d	—	—	+5	6.7	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Something to prove on first attempt beyond sprint distances; headgear enlisted
NR (17)	Raimunda b/br J:Jim Crowley T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Jim Crowley T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	143	—	4415-	76	76	58	287d	—	—	—	13.5	—	—
Disappointing when last seen but may still have more to offer; has very low mileage
NR (14)	Dreamrocker Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	138	—	617-8	71	82	52	19d	—	—	—	5.3	—	—
Has failed to build on Salisbury success but is bred to do better still
NR (6)	Cariad Bay J:Liam Wright(5) T:George Scott	J:Liam Wright(5) T:George Scott	130	p	5615-8	63	78	65	29d	—	—	—	3.3	—	—
All wins in Class 6 contests on AW; not the percentage call
NR (12)	Toxic Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Richard Spencer	J:Hollie Doyle T:Richard Spencer	128	—	17	73	75	-	36d	—	—	—	12.8	—	—
Both starts at Wolverhampton; well beaten under a penalty latest

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Sunfall	11/4	11/4	11/4
Victoria Falls	13/2	13/2	13/2
Local Music	9/1	9/1	9/1
Astral Spirit	8/1	8/1	8/1
Heartwarmer	7/1	7/1	7/1
Royal Velvet	9/1	9/1	9/1
Bint Al Daar	12/1	12/1	12/1
Adelabella	14/1	14/1	14/1
Beveragino	16/1	16/1	16/1
Astronomica	22/1	22/1	22/1
Speriamo	22/1	22/1	22/1
Machiavellian Lady	25/1	25/1	25/1
Ziggy's Phoenix	40/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sunfall

22.7

OR: 6.5 Form: 10 Odds: 6.2

11/4

2nd

Heartwarmer

18.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.7

7/1

3rd

Astral Spirit

18.4

OR: 6 Form: 10 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Royal Velvet

17.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 10 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Bint Al Daar

17.6

OR: 6.5 Form: 9.5 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Machiavellian Lady

14.5

OR: 5.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Raimunda

13.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 7 Odds: 0

—

Toxic

12.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 7 Odds: 0

—

Astronomica

12.1

OR: 2.3 Form: 9 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Victoria Falls

8.9

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Beveragino

7.5

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

16/1

Speriamo

7.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Ziggy's Phoenix

6.7

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Local Music

6.1

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Dreamrocker

5.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Adelabella

3.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Cariad

3.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sunfall	76	84	—
Bint Al Daar	76	81	66
Raimunda	76	76	58
Heartwarmer	75	82	46
Beveragino	75	77	—
Speriamo	75	80	21
Ziggy's Phoenix	75	77	43
Victoria Falls	74	81	65
Astral Spirit	74	83	59
Toxic	73	75	—
Royal Velvet	72	80	—
Machiavellian Lady	71	78	17
Dreamrocker	71	82	52
Local Music	66	78	27
Cariad	63	78	65
Adelabella	59	77	59
Astronomica	59	80	72

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Victoria Falls	9d ago	Quick return
Speriamo	15d ago	Fit
Ziggy's Phoenix	18d ago	Fit
Adelabella	19d ago	Fit
Dreamrocker	19d ago	Fit
Astral Spirit	21d ago	Fit
Royal Velvet	23d ago	Fit
Beveragino	26d ago	Fit
Heartwarmer	27d ago	Fit
Cariad	29d ago	Fit
Sunfall	34d ago	Fit
Local Music	36d ago	Fit
Toxic	36d ago	Fit
Bint Al Daar	165d ago	Long break
Machiavellian Lady	190d ago	Long break
Astronomica	209d ago	Long break
Raimunda	287d ago	Long break