Betfair Racing Podcasts Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

Newbury

12:55

Date 2024-02-10

Distance 2m69y

Class Class 3

Going Heavy

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £8,169

Runners (18)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1	Hasthing Bay J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo O'Neill	J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo O'Neill	166	—	/23-11	119	124	97	30d	—	—	-6	27.9	0.38/1	6/4 40%
2-2 over hurdles; now carries double penalty in a better race but retains potential
3	Making Headway Bay J:Henry Brooke T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Henry Brooke T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	162	—	/1-124	129	133	113	46d	—	—	+6	36.1	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Won at Carlisle then made the frame in Grade 2 and Grade 1 events; leading player
2	East India Express Bay J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	162	—	1-14	123	130	85	52d	—	—	+13	30.5	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Bubble was burst here last time but that form has substance; still of interest
9	Jack Black Bay J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	156	—	33	-	-	-	28d	—	—	-1	7.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Clear promise in soft-ground bumpers; remains open to progress; could go well
8	Fourtowns Bay J:Harry Cobden T:Ben Pauling	J:Harry Cobden T:Ben Pauling	156	—	7-53	-	-	-	270d	—	—	-3	1.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Steady progress in bumpers for Stuart Crawford; subsequently sold for £30,000
14	Salvatore Chestnut J:Alice Stevens(5) T:Harry Derham	J:Alice Stevens(5) T:Harry Derham	156	—	75	-	105	88	9d	—	—	-5	1.9	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Has failed to transfer his Flat form to hurdles in two attempts
7	David's Well Bay J:Rex Dingle T:Chris Gordon	J:Rex Dingle T:Chris Gordon	156	—	U3-49	-	90	82	52d	—	—	-2	0.9	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Both rules starts at Newbury, midfield switched to hurdles latest
18	The Blueberry One Bay J:Paul O'Brien T:Harry Derham	J:Paul O'Brien T:Harry Derham	156	—	—	-	90	64	18d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Attractively bred; soundly beaten in bumper here last month but may do better
5	Ballybay Bay J:James Davies T:Gary Moore	J:James Davies T:Gary Moore	156	ht	7-6	-	89	59	15d	—	—	-1	0.4	31.25/1	125/1 1%
Shaped better than bare result at Sandown on reappearance
17	The Big Man Brown J:Conor Ring(3) T:Evan Williams	J:Conor Ring(3) T:Evan Williams	156	—	5	-	-	-	78d	—	—	-1	0.3	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Trailed home last of five in Chepstow bumper 11 weeks ago
6	Chancellorstown Bay J:Kevin Brogan T:Toby Lawes	J:Kevin Brogan T:Toby Lawes	156	—	/P3-40	-	101	83	18d	—	—	-1	0.2	75.00/1	300/1 0%
Well beaten over C&D last time; one for handicaps shortly
12	Parsons Stone Chestnut J:Sean Houlihan T:Robert Stephens	J:Sean Houlihan T:Robert Stephens	156	h	/776-P	-	88	68	15d	—	—	-1	0.2	100.00/1	400/1 0%
Holds weak claims on form
13	Platenium Bay J:Beau Morgan(5) T:Ben Pauling	J:Beau Morgan(5) T:Ben Pauling	156	—	790	-	87	-	31d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Regressive results in three runs
NR	Paradias Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Alan King	J:NON-RUNNER T:Alan King	162	—	13	121	123	-	42d	—	—	—	27.8	—	—
Useful on Flat; ran creditably over C&D on latest hurdles start; enters calculations
NR	Juan Bermudez Chestnut J:NON-RUNNER T:Dan Skelton	J:NON-RUNNER T:Dan Skelton	156	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	—	0	—	—
Flat form deteriorated in 2023; sold for 25,000gns since last run; market can guide
NR	Noble Don Chestnut J:Tom Bellamy T:D J Jeffreys	J:Tom Bellamy T:D J Jeffreys	156	—	3F-27	-	-	-	29d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Modest effort in Sedgefield bumper on rules debut
NR	Sandmartin Bay J:Charlie Deutsch T:Mel Rowley	J:Charlie Deutsch T:Mel Rowley	156	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	—	0	—	—
58,000euros 3yo; half-brother to a 2m hurdle winner; market informative
NR	Selwan Bay J:Tom Cannon T:Alan King	J:Tom Cannon T:Alan King	156	v	PP	-	-	-	46d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Three Flat wins in France; holds dismal claims on British form

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Hasthing	6/4	6/4	6/4
Making Headway	13/8	7/4	13/8
East India Express	4/1	7/2	7/2
Jack Black	12/1	9/1	9/1
Fourtowns	22/1	25/1	25/1
Salvatore	22/1	25/1	22/1
David's Well	33/1	40/1	33/1
The Blueberry One	40/1	66/1	66/1
Ballybay	100/1	125/1	125/1
The Big Man	150/1	150/1	150/1
Chancellorstown	300/1	200/1	200/1
Parsons Stone	400/1	200/1	200/1
Platenium	250/1	200/1	200/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Making Headway

36.1

OR: 19.8 Form: 7 Odds: 9.4

7/4

2nd

East India Express

30.5

OR: 18.3 Form: 7 Odds: 5.2

4/1

3rd

Hasthing

27.9

OR: 17.3 Form: 0 Odds: 10.6

6/4

Paradias

27.8

OR: 17.8 Form: 10 Odds: 0

—

Jack Black

7.5

OR: 0 Form: 5.1 Odds: 2.4

12/1

Salvatore

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

25/1

Fourtowns

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

David's Well

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

40/1

The Blueberry One

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Ballybay

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

125/1

The Big Man

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150/1

Chancellorstown

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

300/1

Parsons Stone

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

400/1

Platenium

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250/1

Juan Bermudez

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Noble Don

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Sandmartin

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Selwan

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Making Headway	129	133	113
East India Express	123	130	85
Paradias	121	123	—
Hasthing	119	124	97
Jack Black	—	—	—
Fourtowns	—	—	—
Salvatore	—	105	88
David's Well	—	90	82
The Blueberry One	—	90	64
Ballybay	—	89	59
The Big Man	—	—	—
Chancellorstown	—	101	83
Parsons Stone	—	88	68
Platenium	—	87	—
Juan Bermudez	—	—	—
Noble Don	—	—	—
Sandmartin	—	—	—
Selwan	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Salvatore	9d ago	Quick return
Ballybay	15d ago	Fit
Parsons Stone	15d ago	Fit
The Blueberry One	18d ago	Fit
Chancellorstown	18d ago	Fit
Jack Black	28d ago	Fit
Noble Don	29d ago	Fit
Hasthing	30d ago	Fit
Platenium	31d ago	Fit
Paradias	42d ago	Fit
Making Headway	46d ago	Fresh
Selwan	46d ago	Fresh
East India Express	52d ago	Fresh
David's Well	52d ago	Fresh
The Big Man	78d ago	Fresh
Fourtowns	270d ago	Long break
Juan Bermudez	—	—
Sandmartin	—	—