Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Run In Memory Of Kim Gingell) (GBB)

Chepstow

14:50

Date 2023-12-27

Distance 3m6f130y

Class Class 1

Going Heavy

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £85,827

Runners (20)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10	Autonomous Cloud Bay J:Paddy Brennan T:Fergal O'Brien	J:Paddy Brennan T:Fergal O'Brien	149	—	2221-1	134	162	132	31d	—	—	+19	36	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Good jumper who keeps on galloping at 3m/3m2f and has more in the tank
5	Nassalam Chestnut J:Caoilin Quinn(3) T:Gary Moore	J:Caoilin Quinn(3) T:Gary Moore	160	b	307-41	145	163	120	18d	—	—	+14	27.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Win in fine style here (3m, heavy) 18 days ago in the National Trial; 4lb penalty
12	Super Survivor Bay J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	145	—	/213-2	130	159	139	36d	—	—	+16	28.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Could have improvement in him as well as stamina reserves; early jumping might concern
7	Iron Bridge Bay J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo O'Neill	J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo O'Neill	157	—	5122-P	142	152	136	26d	—	0W/1P 1 run	+15	26.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Disconcerting on reappearance; interesting on his Uttoxeter second to Autonomous Cloud
2	Complete Unknown Bay J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	167	—	212-10	152	159	116	25d	—	—	+19	28.2	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Made a backward step when favourite for top 3m2f handicap at Newbury on latest outing
1	Iwilldoit Bay J:Dylan Johnston(7) T:Sam Thomas	J:Dylan Johnston(7) T:Sam Thomas	168	—	1/15-2	153	165	126	46d	—	—	+30	38	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Won 2021 Welsh National (soft) and last season's Classic Chase at Warwick (3m5f, heavy)
6	Chambard Bay J:Miss Lucy Turner(5) T:Venetia Williams	J:Miss Lucy Turner(5) T:Venetia Williams	159	—	U44-21	144	160	135	18d	—	—	+18	25.6	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Due to go up another 5lb, so a huge player if able to back up Aintree effort 18 days later
8	Truckers Lodge Bay J:Freddie Gingell(5) T:Paul Nicholls	J:Freddie Gingell(5) T:Paul Nicholls	156	b	581-B1	141	159	43	18d	—	—	+19	24.4	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Second, seventh, third and fourth in the last four Welsh Nationals; on the premises again
4	The Galloping Bear Bay J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Ben Clarke	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Ben Clarke	160	tv	/3F2P-	145	161	132	284d	—	—	+23	27	6.25/1	25/1 4%
More exposed than a lot of these but no doubts over his stamina if he is back on song
3	The Big Breakaway Chestnut J:Adam Wedge T:Joe Tizzard	J:Adam Wedge T:Joe Tizzard	162	b	2PF-5P	147	163	104	18d	—	—	+21	25.5	5.00/1	20/1 5%
No win since 2020; excellent 2nd in this in 2022; has not clicked in his four starts since
15	Wayfinder Chestnut J:Lilly Pinchin T:Rebecca Curtis	J:Lilly Pinchin T:Rebecca Curtis	142	p	4P-3F2	127	156	134	18d	—	—	+16	20.3	5.50/1	22/1 4%
4-8 at Chepstow; stays 3m2f but failed to complete in his four attempts beyond that
16	Blade Runner Bay J:Freddie Gordon(5) T:Chris Gordon	J:Freddie Gordon(5) T:Chris Gordon	142	p	3-311P	127	158	126	33d	—	—	+18	22.4	6.25/1	25/1 4%
5-6 over fences; this trip can suit if jockey can get him to keep a competitive position
19	Didero Vallis Bay J:Charlie Deutsch T:Venetia Williams	J:Charlie Deutsch T:Venetia Williams	142	—	5PP-39	127	156	115	12d	—	—	+17	20.2	8.25/1	33/1 3%
No win since February 2021; unlikely to put that right in this from 12lb out of handicap
20	Not Sure Brown J:Richard Patrick T:Kerry Lee	J:Richard Patrick T:Kerry Lee	142	p	313-13	127	145	107	19d	—	—	+17	20.1	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Never better; going beyond 3m may well suit him but he's 12lb out of the handicap
9	Only The Bold Bay J:Jack Tudor T:David Pipe	J:Jack Tudor T:David Pipe	150	tp	114-8P	135	158	-	31d	—	—	+19	22	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Two emphatic chase wins in the mud last winter but three backward steps since
14	Charlie Uberalles Chestnut J:Danny McMenamin T:Dianne Sayer	J:Danny McMenamin T:Dianne Sayer	142	—	1441-3	127	155	-	46d	—	—	+20	23	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Has stacks to prove (second run after 416 days off) but he is very lightly raced
13	Amateur Chestnut J:Connor Brace T:John Flint	J:Connor Brace T:John Flint	142	p	6P3-10	127	161	142	178d	—	—	+18	19.8	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Three 3m4f wins at Ffos Las; more to prove on first run since July and at this level
17	Max Dynamo Bay J:James Turner(7) T:Emma-Jane Bishop	J:James Turner(7) T:Emma-Jane Bishop	142	ht	/160-2	127	154	117	38d	—	—	+23	24.7	16.50/1	66/1 1%
13yo whose career best was a 25l win here (3m2f) in February; 7lb out of the handicap
18	Domaine De L'Isle Bay J:Ned Fox(5) T:Sean Curran	J:Ned Fox(5) T:Sean Curran	142	tb	814-PP	127	158	-	14d	—	—	+18	19.7	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Authoritative win here (3m7f, soft) in March; pulled up this term; 8lb out of handicap
NR	Iceo Madrik Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:David Pipe	J:NON-RUNNER T:David Pipe	145	tp	F2PP-9	130	158	-	26d	—	—	—	20	—	—
Interesting on some French chase efforts but not on his three British runs since

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Autonomous Cloud	4/1	4/1	7/2
Nassalam	11/2	9/2	9/2
Super Survivor	6/1	6/1	11/2
Iron Bridge	15/2	13/2	13/2
Complete Unknown	17/2	9/1	8/1
Iwilldoit	10/1	9/1	9/1
Chambard	11/1	11/1	10/1
Truckers Lodge	18/1	16/1	14/1
The Galloping Bear	25/1	20/1	18/1
The Big Breakaway	18/1	20/1	20/1
Wayfinder	22/1	22/1	20/1
Blade Runner	25/1	22/1	20/1
Didero Vallis	28/1	33/1	25/1
Not Sure	33/1	33/1	33/1
Only The Bold	33/1	33/1	28/1
Charlie Uberalles	50/1	33/1	33/1
Amateur	66/1	40/1	33/1
Max Dynamo	66/1	50/1	50/1
Domaine De L'Isle	100/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Iwilldoit

OR: 25.8 Form: 10 Odds: 2.2

10/1

2nd

Autonomous Cloud

OR: 21 Form: 10 Odds: 5

4/1

3rd

Super Survivor

28.6

OR: 20 Form: 5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Complete Unknown

28.2

OR: 25.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Nassalam

27.8

OR: 23.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

11/2

The Galloping Bear

OR: 23.8 Form: 2.2 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Iron Bridge

26.1

OR: 23 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Chambard

25.6

OR: 23.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

The Big Breakaway

25.5

OR: 24.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Max Dynamo

24.7

OR: 19.3 Form: 5 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Truckers Lodge

24.4

OR: 22.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Charlie Uberalles

OR: 19.3 Form: 3 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Blade Runner

22.4

OR: 19.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Only The Bold

OR: 21.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Wayfinder

20.3

OR: 19.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Didero Vallis

20.2

OR: 19.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

33/1

Not Sure

20.1

OR: 19.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Iceo Madrik

OR: 20 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Amateur

19.8

OR: 19.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Domaine De L'Isle

19.7

OR: 19.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Iwilldoit	153	165	126
Complete Unknown	152	159	116
The Big Breakaway	147	163	104
Nassalam	145	163	120
The Galloping Bear	145	161	132
Chambard	144	160	135
Iron Bridge	142	152	136
Truckers Lodge	141	159	43
Only The Bold	135	158	—
Autonomous Cloud	134	162	132
Super Survivor	130	159	139
Iceo Madrik	130	158	—
Wayfinder	127	156	134
Blade Runner	127	158	126
Didero Vallis	127	156	115
Not Sure	127	145	107
Charlie Uberalles	127	155	—
Amateur	127	161	142
Max Dynamo	127	154	117
Domaine De L'Isle	127	158	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Didero Vallis	12d ago	Quick return
Domaine De L'Isle	14d ago	Fit
Nassalam	18d ago	Fit
Chambard	18d ago	Fit
Truckers Lodge	18d ago	Fit
The Big Breakaway	18d ago	Fit
Wayfinder	18d ago	Fit
Not Sure	19d ago	Fit
Complete Unknown	25d ago	Fit
Iron Bridge	26d ago	Fit
Iceo Madrik	26d ago	Fit
Autonomous Cloud	31d ago	Fit
Only The Bold	31d ago	Fit
Blade Runner	33d ago	Fit
Super Survivor	36d ago	Fit
Max Dynamo	38d ago	Fit
Iwilldoit	46d ago	Fresh
Charlie Uberalles	46d ago	Fresh
Amateur	178d ago	Long break
The Galloping Bear	284d ago	Long break