Betfred Play Fred's 5 Million Handicap – Newmarket

Newmarket

15:10

Betfred Play Fred's 5 Million Handicap

Date 2023-11-03

Distance 1m4f

Class Class 3

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £8,100

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (8)	Mr Alan Chestnut J:Daniel Tudhope T:George Boughey	J:Daniel Tudhope T:George Boughey	142	p	155-61	97	103	71	16d	—	—	-1	17	0.75/1	4 25%
Won by a nose last time (1m2f, heavy); 5th in last Year's November Handicap (1m4f, heavy)
5 (1)	Torcello Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Shaun Lycett	J:Joe Fanning T:Shaun Lycett	133	b	1-8264	88	105	77	90d	—	—	+4	21.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Goes well on softer than good and has a good record at this track; interesting
11 (11)	Kardia Bay J:Harry Davies T:Edward Bethell	J:Harry Davies T:Edward Bethell	119	h	5-12	79	98	75	34d	—	—	-2	10.9	1.00/1	5 20%
Only three races; this handicap debut should be stamina test at 1m4f; needs a second look
10 (6)	Wind Your Neck In Chestnut J:Richard Kingscote T:David Evans	J:Richard Kingscote T:David Evans	124	—	240273	79	101	96	23d	—	—	+3	16.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
2nd in three of nine starts this season and fair third (1m2f, heavy) on latest outing
3 (9)	Splendent Bay J:David Probert T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:David Probert T:Paul & Oliver Cole	136	t	351613	91	100	88	36d	—	—	+15	26.3	1.50/1	7 14%
Three wins this season; his form dipped three starts back when he encountered heavy going
6 (4)	Crystal Delight Chestnut J:Kieran Shoemark T:William Jarvis	J:Kieran Shoemark T:William Jarvis	133	t	883652	88	101	76	36d	—	—	+9	17.9	1.75/1	8 13%
Recent slow starts are a concern, as is his heavy defeat at on soft ground in September
4 (7)	Carzola Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	135	b	321116	90	102	35	160d	—	—	+21	27.9	3.25/1	14 7%
Her chance is presumably boosted by a return to testing ground on this first run since May
8 (2)	Graphite Grey J:David Egan T:T J Kent	J:David Egan T:T J Kent	132	t	308-85	87	99	76	111d	—	—	+5	11	2.75/1	12 8%
Two respectable efforts this summer; absent 111 days; has a good record on soft ground
2 (10)	Soto Sizzler Bay J:Tom Queally T:Gary Moore	J:Tom Queally T:Gary Moore	138	p	030202	93	102	83	33d	—	—	+15	20.2	4.75/1	20 5%
This year's three placings having come in smaller fields but he is not dismissed
9 (3)	The Whipmaster Chestnut J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary Moore	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary Moore	129	p	165285	84	103	74	33d	—	—	+9	11.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Six wins on turf, none on worse than good to soft; has a competitive mark if again on song
7 (5)	Southern Voyage Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	132	—	401-09	87	96	55	17d	—	—	+7	10	12.25/1	50 2%
Absent nearly a year before well held this autumn; not proven on softer than good

Horse	bet365	Coral
Mr Alan	4	4
Torcello	9/2	7/2
Kardia	5	5
Wind Your Neck In	11/2	11/2
Splendent	7	6
Crystal Delight	8	8
Carzola	10	14
Graphite	12	12
Soto Sizzler	20	16
The Whipmaster	33	28
Southern Voyage	50	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Carzola

27.9

OR: 10 Form: 16 Odds: 1.9

2nd

Splendent

26.3

OR: 10.3 Form: 13 Odds: 3.1

3rd

Torcello

21.5

OR: 9.5 Form: 7 Odds: 5

9/2

Soto Sizzler

20.2

OR: 10.8 Form: 8.1 Odds: 1.4

Crystal Delight

17.9

OR: 9.5 Form: 5.9 Odds: 2.5

Mr Alan

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

Wind Your Neck In

16.8

OR: 7.3 Form: 5.5 Odds: 4

11/2

The Whipmaster

11.9

OR: 8.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 0.9

Graphite

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Kardia

10.9

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

Southern Voyage

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mr Alan	97	103	71
Soto Sizzler	93	102	83
Splendent	91	100	88
Carzola	90	102	35
Torcello	88	105	77
Crystal Delight	88	101	76
Graphite	87	99	76
Southern Voyage	87	96	55
The Whipmaster	84	103	74
Kardia	79	98	75
Wind Your Neck In	79	101	96

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mr Alan	16d ago	Fit
Southern Voyage	17d ago	Fit
Wind Your Neck In	23d ago	Fit
Soto Sizzler	33d ago	Fit
The Whipmaster	33d ago	Fit
Kardia	34d ago	Fit
Splendent	36d ago	Fit
Crystal Delight	36d ago	Fit
Torcello	90d ago	Fresh
Graphite	111d ago	Long break
Carzola	160d ago	Long break