BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap (Div II) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

12:40

BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap (Div II)

Date 2024-12-29

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,972

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (6)	Gincident Bay J:Jack Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Jack Garritty T:Richard Fahey	137	h	629365	77	92	55	38d	—	—	-6	15.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Losing run is mounting up but this three-time AW scorer remains well treated on peak form
1 (8)	Bowood Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	140	—	111062	80	89	57	15d	—	—	+3	23.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
0-11 on AW but ran well (career-best effort) in C&D event most recently; warrants respect
8 (5)	Bella Bisbee Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Dunlop	J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Dunlop	132	—	316071	73	87	61	16d	—	—	+9	21.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Won narrowly here this month; could well remain competitive, having gone back up just 2lb
2 (10)	Vibrato Bay J:George Wood T:Jennie Candlish	J:George Wood T:Jennie Candlish	138	—	232116	79	85	74	17d	—	—	+12	25	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Below par last time when bidding for 7f AW hat-trick; consistent otherwise
9 (9)	Al Mudhaffar Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Rob Hornby T:Charlie Fellowes	131	v	214090	72	83	60	20d	—	—	+2	9.6	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Ex-Irish; down the field in both starts for new stable; change of headgear
5 (3)	Repertoire Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:David Simcock	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:David Simcock	136	—	453738	76	92	-	83d	—	—	+4	11.6	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Not seen on AW since 2021 but is attractively treated; all handicap wins off 4lb higher
6 (1)	Siam Fox Bay J:Sam James T:Kevin Frost	J:Sam James T:Kevin Frost	135	t	793445	75	88	72	15d	—	—	+3	8.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Not disgraced over C&D last time, albeit appearing held by Bowood on that effort
4 (2)	He's A Gentleman Grey J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	136	v	102958	76	88	67	15d	—	—	+4	9.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Inconsistent this year and finished behind two of these rivals here last time
7 (7)	Sixfiveseven Bay J:Josephine Gordon T:Keiran Burke	J:Josephine Gordon T:Keiran Burke	134	tb	/50217	74	86	59	18d	—	—	+11	17.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Off the mark in Newmarket contest on most recent 1m attempt; not dismissed
10 (4)	Sceptic Bay J:Luke Morris T:Ian Williams	J:Luke Morris T:Ian Williams	122	—	080000	62	81	37	10d	—	—	+2	3.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Big turnaround is required on first run since rejoining Ian Williams

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Gincident	11/4	11/4	11/4
Bowood	11/4	11/4	11/4
Bella Bisbee	13/2	13/2	13/2
Vibrato	13/2	13/2	13/2
Al Mudhaffar	11/1	11/1	11/1
Repertoire	11/1	11/1	11/1
Siam Fox	14/1	12/1	12/1
He's A Gentleman	16/1	16/1	16/1
Sixfiveseven	12/1	12/1	12/1
Sceptic	80/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Vibrato

OR: 7.3 Form: 14.1 Odds: 3.6

13/2

2nd

Bowood

23.7

OR: 7.5 Form: 10 Odds: 6.2

11/4

3rd

Bella Bisbee

21.1

OR: 5.8 Form: 12 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Sixfiveseven

17.2

OR: 6 Form: 9.5 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Gincident

15.9

OR: 6.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 6.7

11/4

Repertoire

11.6

OR: 6.5 Form: 3 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Al Mudhaffar

9.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 2 Odds: 2.1

11/1

He's A Gentleman

9.6

OR: 6.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Siam Fox

8.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Sceptic

3.4

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bowood	80	89	57
Vibrato	79	85	74
Gincident	77	92	55
Repertoire	76	92	—
He's A Gentleman	76	88	67
Siam Fox	75	88	72
Sixfiveseven	74	86	59
Bella Bisbee	73	87	61
Al Mudhaffar	72	83	60
Sceptic	62	81	37

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Sceptic	10d ago	Quick return
Bowood	15d ago	Fit
Siam Fox	15d ago	Fit
He's A Gentleman	15d ago	Fit
Bella Bisbee	16d ago	Fit
Vibrato	17d ago	Fit
Sixfiveseven	18d ago	Fit
Al Mudhaffar	20d ago	Fit
Gincident	38d ago	Fit
Repertoire	83d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 5 draws with historical results at this course and distance.