Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

13:15

Date 2024-12-29

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,942

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (9)	Almosh'her Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Hector Crouch T:Charlie Fellowes	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-26	12.5	0.31/1	5/4 44%
90,000euros yearling by Sea The Stars; 28,000gns July buy; market helpful on belated debut
7 (12)	Waiting For Love Bay J:James Doyle T:James Tate	J:James Doyle T:James Tate	133	—	21	-	86	51	27d	—	—	-2	20.2	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Made all for 7l success at Wolverhampton last time; open to further improvement; respected
4 (6)	Muddy Mooy Bay J:Edward Greatrex T:Paul Attwater	J:Edward Greatrex T:Paul Attwater	133	—	1	-	82	-	346d	—	—	-2	15	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Absent since her debut win at Chelmsford in January for Barry Brennan; form contender
5 (1)	Nahy Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	133	t	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-11	4.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
525,000gns yearling; has a useful pedigree; major stable; interesting newcomer
8 (7)	Without Compromise Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	133	—	4	-	75	-	20d	—	—	-3	1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Nicely bred gelding who was beaten only 2l in Newcastle contest; possibilities
12 (10)	Zepparella Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	128	—	43	-	75	20	20d	—	—	0	4.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Promising effort last time; from a good family and could well take another step forward
6 (8)	Quickly Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	10.00/1	40/1 2%
70,000euros yearling; siblings include Listed/Group scorers in Germany
2 (4)	Media Mogul Bay J:George Downing T:Ed Walker	J:George Downing T:Ed Walker	133	—	5	-	64	17	27d	—	—	-1	0.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Beaten 12l in the Wolverhampton event won by Waiting For Love but may improve
9 (3)	Nights Whisper Bay J:Gina Mangan T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	J:Gina Mangan T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
80,000gns yearling, 4,400gns June 3yo; sister to a 6f winner; market instructive
10 (11)	Onlyriversrunfree Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Murty McGrath	J:Darragh Keenan T:Murty McGrath	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
24,000gns foal; by Cracksman; yard not noted for debut scorers
3 (2)	Mostly Mozart Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Richard Phillips	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Richard Phillips	133	—	04	-	65	18	27d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.50/1	250/1 0%
About 9l behind Waiting For Love at Wolverhampton; needs further progress
NR (5)	So Lah De Dah Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Alan King	J:NON-RUNNER T:Alan King	128	—	04	-	45	-	55d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Has achieved little in two races; had wind surgery since last run

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Almosh'her	11/10	6/5	5/4
Waiting For Love	11/4	3/1	3/1
Muddy Mooy	5/1	5/1	9/2
Nahy	6/1	5/1	5/1
Without Compromise	25/1	22/1	22/1
Zepparella	22/1	20/1	20/1
Quickly	40/1	28/1	40/1
Media Mogul	100/1	80/1	80/1
Nights Whisper	150/1	80/1	100/1
Onlyriversrunfree	200/1	125/1	150/1
Mostly Mozart	250/1	125/1	150/1
So Lah De Dah	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Waiting For Love

20.2

OR: 0 Form: 13.5 Odds: 6.7

3/1

2nd

Muddy Mooy

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 5

5/1

3rd

Almosh'her

12.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 12.5

5/4

Nahy

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

6/1

Zepparella

4.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Without Compromise

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Quickly

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

40/1

Media Mogul

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Nights Whisper

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Onlyriversrunfree

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Mostly Mozart

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250/1

So Lah De Dah

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Almosh'her	—	—	—
Waiting For Love	—	86	51
Muddy Mooy	—	82	—
Nahy	—	—	—
Without Compromise	—	75	—
Zepparella	—	75	20
Quickly	—	—	—
Media Mogul	—	64	17
Nights Whisper	—	—	—
Onlyriversrunfree	—	—	—
Mostly Mozart	—	65	18
So Lah De Dah	—	45	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Without Compromise	20d ago	Fit
Zepparella	20d ago	Fit
Waiting For Love	27d ago	Fit
Media Mogul	27d ago	Fit
Mostly Mozart	27d ago	Fit
So Lah De Dah	55d ago	Fresh
Muddy Mooy	346d ago	Long break
Almosh'her	—	—
Nahy	—	—
Quickly	—	—
Nights Whisper	—	—
Onlyriversrunfree	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 5 draws with historical results at this course and distance.