BetMGM: It's Showtime Restricted Maiden Stakes (For horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

20:00

Date 2024-11-02

Distance 4f214y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,402

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (4)	Dothan Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	133	—	46	-	72	-	35d	—	—	-20	8.9	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Promise over 6f on slow ground; drop to 5f could spark extra; interesting
2 (3)	Just King High Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Dylan Cunha	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Dylan Cunha	133	t	44	-	76	-	20d	—	—	-14	5.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Two sound runs on turf; return to 5f is in his favour; more appealing than most
8 (10)	Mae Amor Chestnut J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	128	p	342	75	85	-	85d	—	—	-2	18.9	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Not built on debut promise in two runs since, beaten at long odds-on latest; headgear on
3 (5)	Carbine Harvester Bay J:Adam Farragher T:William Haggas	J:Adam Farragher T:William Haggas	131	—	54	-	67	34	24d	—	—	-14	5.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Shown promise in two starts over further; 5f should suit; can do better and this is weak
7 (2)	Blue Dandy Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:James Tate	J:Paul Mulrennan T:James Tate	128	—	6	-	51	30	28d	—	—	-5	1.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Dropped right away in a 6f maiden here four weeks ago; bred to do better in time
6 (7)	Alfa Sea Breeze Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
11,000euros yearling with five winning siblings; starts out at modest level; check betting
5 (6)	Writteninthestars Bay J:George Downing T:Robert Cowell	J:George Downing T:Robert Cowell	129	—	9	-	49	-	175d	—	—	-2	0.7	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Well-beaten 33-1 shot on his Leicester debut in May; gelded since; needs a good deal more
10 (1)	Sarafina Mshairi Bay J:Georgia Dobie T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	J:Georgia Dobie T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	124	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	12.50/1	50/1 2%
12,000gns yearling; unraced dam a daughter of a Group-placed 5f winner; check betting
9 (9)	Keely Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	124	—	8	-	43	21	12d	—	—	0	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
80-1 and little short-term promise at Wolverhampton 12 days ago (5f)
4 (8)	Sharp Sand Bay J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	129	—	90	-	28	-	9d	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Big prices and failed to beat a rival in two runs this autumn; no appeal

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Dothan	7/4	2/1	2/1
Just King High	7/2	10/3	10/3
Mae Amor	10/3	10/3	10/3
Carbine Harvester	7/2	7/2	7/2
Blue Dandy	14/1	14/1	14/1
Alfa Sea Breeze	25/1	28/1	25/1
Writteninthestars	66/1	40/1	40/1
Sarafina Mshairi	50/1	50/1	50/1
Keely	125/1	150/1	150/1
Sharp Sand	200/1	150/1	200/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mae Amor

18.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 6.2

10/3

2nd

Dothan

8.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8.9

2/1

3rd

Just King High

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Carbine Harvester

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Blue Dandy

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Alfa Sea Breeze

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Writteninthestars

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Sarafina Mshairi

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

50/1

Keely

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Sharp Sand

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mae Amor	75	85	—
Dothan	—	72	—
Just King High	—	76	—
Carbine Harvester	—	67	34
Blue Dandy	—	51	30
Alfa Sea Breeze	—	—	—
Writteninthestars	—	49	—
Sarafina Mshairi	—	—	—
Keely	—	43	21
Sharp Sand	—	28	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Sharp Sand	9d ago	Quick return
Keely	12d ago	Quick return
Just King High	20d ago	Fit
Carbine Harvester	24d ago	Fit
Blue Dandy	28d ago	Fit
Dothan	35d ago	Fit
Mae Amor	85d ago	Fresh
Writteninthestars	175d ago	Long break
Alfa Sea Breeze	—	—
Sarafina Mshairi	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 4f214y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.