Join Us Next Week 16th October Handicap – Nottingham

Nottingham

16:17

Join Us Next Week 16th October Handicap

Date 2024-10-09

Distance 1m75y

Class Class 4

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,496

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (5)	Lunario Grey J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	138	tv	231136	78	86	80	21d	—	—	+7	22.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Largely consistent 2024 campaign includes three wins; not disgraced last time
9 (6)	Mr Swivell Bay J:Ray Dawson T:James Ferguson	J:Ray Dawson T:James Ferguson	132	—	160133	75	87	79	18d	—	—	+5	20.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Unraced on soft/heavy; remains in form, having been placed the last twice
11 (10)	Desperate Dan Bay J:Neil Callan T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Neil Callan T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	129	—	80283	72	84	59	13d	—	—	+3	14.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Five-race maiden whose latest effort ties him in with Pressure's On; shortlisted
6 (4)	Law Supreme Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Ian Williams	J:Cieren Fallon T:Ian Williams	133	—	239026	73	86	58	33d	—	—	+2	12.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Reproduction of penultimate effort would put him in the picture
4 (9)	Pressure's On Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Ed Dunlop	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ed Dunlop	134	—	-28552	77	87	75	13d	—	—	+3	16.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Generally respectable form this term, solid second at Newmarket most recently
8 (2)	Ardbraccan Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	132	tp	425722	72	86	80	40d	—	—	+9	17.2	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Won over C&D in April; largely consistent since; solid effort at Sandown latest
3 (7)	Native Souvenir Bay J:Harry Davies T:Hugo Palmer	J:Harry Davies T:Hugo Palmer	135	—	13	78	84	75	19d	—	—	+12	19.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Twice-raced filly who is interesting back on turf; won in this sphere on debut
1 (1)	Boy Douglas Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	139	—	122038	79	87	69	25d	—	—	+6	14	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Brings mixed messages on recent form; not fully certain what to expect from him
5 (13)	Climate Action Bay J:James Doyle T:James Owen	J:James Doyle T:James Owen	134	—	22-825	77	85	55	68d	—	—	+1	8.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
0-5 for Michael Bell; switch to handicap level could make a difference
12 (11)	Groovy Baby Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Andrew Balding	J:Hayley Turner T:Andrew Balding	127	h	2-0253	70	82	73	40d	—	—	+4	10.1	4.00/1	16/1 6%
4l behind Native Souvenir at Ffos Las but now gets an 8lb pull with that rival
7 (8)	Moonlit Cloud Bay J:J F Egan T:Dean Ivory	J:J F Egan T:Dean Ivory	132	p	615758	72	85	71	29d	—	—	+3	9.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Has done her winning at 1m2f; something to prove back over 1m
NR (12)	Inversion Grey J:TBC T:Harry Charlton	J: T:Harry Charlton	131	h	7-47	74	80	55	51d	—	—	—	6	—	—
Nicely bred filly who is attractively treated off an opening mark of 74; respected
NR (3)	Bigbertiebassett Bay J:TBC T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J: T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	125	b	457565	68	86	79	19d	—	—	—	4.5	—	—
More exposed than most of the other 3yos in this race; headgear applied

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Lunario	11/2	5/1	5/1
Mr Swivell	9/2	4/1	9/2
Desperate Dan	13/2	13/2	13/2
Law Supreme	15/2	15/2	7/1
Pressure's On	6/1	11/2	6/1
Ardbraccan	10/1	9/1	10/1
Native Souvenir	11/1	10/1	11/1
Boy Douglas	12/1	12/1	12/1
Climate Action	12/1	12/1	12/1
Groovy Baby	16/1	16/1	14/1
Moonlit Cloud	16/1	16/1	16/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lunario

22.1

OR: 7 Form: 10.7 Odds: 4.4

11/2

2nd

Mr Swivell

20.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 10.1 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Native Souvenir

19.1

OR: 7 Form: 10 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Ardbraccan

17.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 9.5 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Pressure's On

16.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 6 Odds: 4

6/1

Desperate Dan

14.3

OR: 5.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Boy Douglas

OR: 7.3 Form: 4.6 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Law Supreme

12.9

OR: 5.8 Form: 4.1 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Groovy Baby

10.1

OR: 5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Moonlit Cloud

9.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 2 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Climate Action

8.9

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Inversion

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Bigbertiebassett

4.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Boy Douglas	79	87	69
Lunario	78	86	80
Native Souvenir	78	84	75
Pressure's On	77	87	75
Climate Action	77	85	55
Mr Swivell	75	87	79
Inversion	74	80	55
Law Supreme	73	86	58
Desperate Dan	72	84	59
Ardbraccan	72	86	80
Moonlit Cloud	72	85	71
Groovy Baby	70	82	73
Bigbertiebassett	68	86	79

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Desperate Dan	13d ago	Quick return
Pressure's On	13d ago	Quick return
Mr Swivell	18d ago	Fit
Native Souvenir	19d ago	Fit
Bigbertiebassett	19d ago	Fit
Lunario	21d ago	Fit
Boy Douglas	25d ago	Fit
Moonlit Cloud	29d ago	Fit
Law Supreme	33d ago	Fit
Ardbraccan	40d ago	Fit
Groovy Baby	40d ago	Fit
Inversion	51d ago	Fresh
Climate Action	68d ago	Fresh