Southwell Golf Clubhouse Is Open Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

14:12

Date 2024-08-26

Distance 4f214y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,996

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
11 (11)	Sunshine Soul Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	128	—	272	79	88	-	56d	—	—	-5	23.6	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Good form when runner-up on two of her three turf starts; leading contender on AW debut
1 (4)	Mademoiselle Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:George Scott	J:Kieran Shoemark T:George Scott	135	—	620431	78	82	52	23d	—	—	+5	26.3	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Made the frame in two nurseries before clearcut Thirsk maiden win; ought to run well again
7 (2)	Nightbird Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	128	—	024	76	87	-	11d	—	—	+2	13.3	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Shade disappointing last time but a contender if judged on her close second two runs ago
2 (12)	Eartha Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	132	—	21	79	84	-	84d	—	—	+12	24.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Led close home to win Wetherby maiden in June; could easily have more to offer
8 (1)	Rogue Dancer Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-7	2.7	2.25/1	9/1 10%
60,000euros breeze-up 2yo; half-sister to two very useful sprinters; market may guide
12 (5)	Thecla Bay J:Sam James T:Kevin Ryan	J:Sam James T:Kevin Ryan	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Half-sister to a dual Italian Listed winner; in good hands; no surprise if she features
6 (9)	Mollymook Bay J:J F Egan T:Darryll Holland	J:J F Egan T:Darryll Holland	128	h	3	-	83	-	18d	—	—	-3	5.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Overcome inexperience when creditable third on recent debut at Sandown; shortlisted
5 (10)	Mirage Mistress Bay J:George Downing T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:George Downing T:Eve Johnson Houghton	128	—	55	-	76	61	33d	—	—	-2	0.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Displayed significant ability on both starts but drops in trip in need of improvement
3 (8)	Andantini Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Michael Attwater	J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Michael Attwater	128	—	40	-	75	-	31d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Not disgraced on either start but others have much more obvious claims here
10 (7)	Startling Bay J:Jason Watson T:David O'Meara	J:Jason Watson T:David O'Meara	128	—	70	-	31	-	11d	—	—	-1	0.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Finished last and well beaten on her first two appearances (both 5f)
4 (6)	La Lunita Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	31.25/1	125/1 1%
Nice pedigree, but would be a very rare winning newcomer for the stable
NR (3)	Shadow On The Hill Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:George Margarson	J:Darragh Keenan T:George Margarson	128	—	60	-	34	-	28d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Well beaten after racing too freely on both turf outings (5f/6f); AW debut today

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Sunshine Soul	9/4	9/4	2/1
Mademoiselle	10/3	3/1	10/3
Nightbird	6/1	11/2	6/1
Eartha	11/2	5/1	6/1
Rogue Dancer	9/1	9/1	9/1
Thecla	9/1	11/1	11/1
Mollymook	12/1	12/1	14/1
Mirage Mistress	33/1	33/1	33/1
Andantini	50/1	50/1	50/1
Startling	100/1	100/1	80/1
La Lunita	80/1	125/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mademoiselle

26.3

OR: 7 Form: 13.1 Odds: 6.2

10/3

2nd

Eartha

24.4

OR: 7.3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

3rd

Sunshine Soul

23.6

OR: 7.3 Form: 7.5 Odds: 8.9

9/4

Nightbird

13.3

OR: 6.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Mollymook

5.1

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Rogue Dancer

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Thecla

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Mirage Mistress

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Andantini

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Startling

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

La Lunita

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

125/1

Shadow On The Hill

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sunshine Soul	79	88	—
Eartha	79	84	—
Mademoiselle	78	82	52
Nightbird	76	87	—
Rogue Dancer	—	—	—
Thecla	—	—	—
Mollymook	—	83	—
Mirage Mistress	—	76	61
Andantini	—	75	—
Startling	—	31	—
La Lunita	—	—	—
Shadow On The Hill	—	34	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Nightbird	11d ago	Quick return
Startling	11d ago	Quick return
Mollymook	18d ago	Fit
Mademoiselle	23d ago	Fit
Shadow On The Hill	28d ago	Fit
Andantini	31d ago	Fit
Mirage Mistress	33d ago	Fit
Sunshine Soul	56d ago	Fresh
Eartha	84d ago	Fresh
Rogue Dancer	—	—
Thecla	—	—
La Lunita	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 4f214y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.