BetUK Over 40,000 Live Streamed Races Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

18:00

Date 2023-03-07

Distance 4f214y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,400

Winning Time 59.26s (slow by 2.36s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Crimson Angel (GB) John Fahy · Clive Cox	15/8	Won
2nd	Erosion Risk (IRE) Rossa Ryan · David Evans	11/10F	1.75
3rd	Medici Chapel (GB) Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden	6/1	0.3
4th	Shine's Ambition (IRE) Jonny Peate · Roger Fell	13/2	3
5th	Espiritu Moreno (GB) Thore Hammer Hansen · Chris Dwyer	300/1	10
6th	Mane Man Boris (GB) Faye McManoman · Stella Barclay	200/1	1.75

Runners (6)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (3)	Espiritu Moreno Bay J:Thore Hammer Hansen T:Chris Dwyer	J:Thore Hammer Hansen T:Chris Dwyer	142	—	85-	-	23	-	88d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Well beaten on both starts, latterly over C&D in December; difficult to fancy.
2 (2)	Crimson Angel Bay J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	131	—	4-1	-	82	29	10d	—	—	—	10	—	—
Recent Lingfield winner (5f, maiden); open to further improvement, so could follow up.
3 (6)	Erosion Risk Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	129	—	-32222	72	83	77	8d	—	—	—	18.6	—	—
Consistent; caught late at Wolverhampton (5f; Class 5) last week; first run at Southwell.
4 (5)	Mane Man Boris Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Stella Barclay	J:Faye McManoman T:Stella Barclay	129	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	—	0	—	—
First foal from a 10.6 AW/1m4f turf winner; unlikely to be the solution on debut over 5f.
5 (1)	Shines Ambition Bay J:Jonny Peate(5) T:Roger Fell	J:Jonny Peate(5) T:Roger Fell	129	—	02337-	72	80	56	151d	—	—	—	10.6	—	—
Back from a five-month absence; has twice ran well at Newcastle (6f); possibilities.
6 (4)	Medici Chapel Chestnut J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	124	—	035-23	72	80	58	14d	—	—	—	5.5	—	—
Didn't appear to fully see out 6f latest (third); should be seriously involved here at 5f

No odds data available.

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Erosion Risk

18.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 13.1 Odds: 0

—

2nd

Shines Ambition

10.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 5.1 Odds: 0

—

3rd

Crimson Angel

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 0

—

Medici Chapel

5.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Espiritu Moreno

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Mane Man Boris

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Erosion Risk	72	83	77
Shines Ambition	72	80	56
Medici Chapel	72	80	58
Espiritu Moreno	—	23	—
Crimson Angel	—	82	29
Mane Man Boris	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Erosion Risk	8d ago	Quick return
Crimson Angel	10d ago	Quick return
Medici Chapel	14d ago	Fit
Espiritu Moreno	88d ago	Fresh
Shines Ambition	151d ago	Long break
Mane Man Boris	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 4f214y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.